UNDERLYING FACTORS FOR REAL LIFE ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITY




As we now move towards the mathematical aspects of the chapter, one underlying factor that recurs in every question of probability is that whenever one is asked the question, what is the probability? The immediate question that arises/should arise in one’s mind is the probability of what?

The answer to this question is the probability of the EVENT.

The EVENT is the most important point of probability, or we can say that it is the bottom line . Hence, the first objective while trying to solve any question in probability is to define the event.

In general, the student can either define the event narrowly or broadly. Narrow definitions of event are the building blocks of any probability.

The difference between the narrow and broad definition of event can be explained through an example:

Example: What is the probability of getting a number greater than 4, in a throw of a normal unbiased dice having 6 faces?

The broad definition of the event here is getting a number greater that 4 and this probability is given by 2/6 or 1/3.However, this event can also be broken down into its more basic definition as

                 The event is defined as getting 5 or 6. The individual probabilities of each of these are  1/6 and 1/6 respectively.

   Hence, the required probability is 1/6+1/6 =2/6=1/3

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